In the busiest part of a transaction-challenged retail year, retailers would be happy to just focus on keeping their cash registers as busy as possible. But in the final weeks of a recession year, there are other pesky matters on the retail "To Do" list that are adding to the busy-ness of the U.S. retail industry. Things like last-minute openings and closings, Hail Mary Chapter 11 filings, liquidation sales, lease renegotiations, and those annoying holiday crime reports are stealing focus and keeping some retailers extra busy this year.

Dollar General (DG) is one of the busiest of the busy retailers. The public-turned-private chain went public again in November and 22 million shares changed hands at a price slightly higher than expected. Shortly after that, the chain announced that its year-to-date profits were up 296% over last year. Dollar General's merchandisers expect to grow those profits even more with the chain-specific designs they have been creating for their home and apparel product lines which will be mixed in with the private label products already stocked on the store's shelves.

The discount chain is aggressively courting holiday business by offering a selection of 400 toys, many priced at $5 or lower, in fearless response to Wal-Mart's 100 toys for $10 campaign. (For the record, Wal-Mart has not reported a triple-digit profit increase so far in 2009.) And Dollar General is also going toe-to-toe with convenience stores in Tennessee and Georgia by adding lottery tickets to its merchandising mix in those two states.

Running the 500 stores that Dollar General added to the 2009 Store Openings list has also kept its employees busy this year. And the 50 Dollar General stores that the chain will be adding every month to the Store Openings list in 2010 isn't going to leave much time for slacking off next year either.

One thing that is keeping Dollar General particularly busy lately is the number of police officers who have been frequenting its stores. At least 21 crimes were committed in Dollar General stores in the past six weeks, more than half of which were armed robberies. While the chain takes pride in its "small, convenient neighborhood stores," located in areas that are underserved by other retailers, often there's a good reason why other retailers don't want to set up shop across the street.

Apparently Dollar General stores are quickly taking their place alongside convenience stores as desirable targets for thieves, armed robbers, flim-flam artists, and even arsonists. Hopefully Dollar General is not viewing all of this as just a cost of doing business. Having worked with the convenience store industry, I have seen firsthand how the perceived threat of crime can make every aspect of running a retail business extremely difficult. If just one of these crimes turns bloody, it's going to take more than low-priced toys, advancement opportunities, and a good PR firm to clean up the mess.

One thing Dollar General has not been busy doing is adding any female talent to its board of directors. According to a new report on female executive leadership, Dollar General has the dubious distinction of being the only Fortune 500 retail chain without a female board member, even though it would be safe to assume that the majority of both its customers and employees are female. Dollar General just added two new members to its board this fall, both of them male. Perhaps the lack of female presence in the boardroom is linked somehow to the EEOC lawsuit filed against the chain this fall for sexual harassment. It could be just a coincidence, I suppose.

Another busy retail chain is the chain that opened more than 150 stores within a matter of a few days last week. That was not as impossible as it sounds, because in this case, the stores were InkStop locations which had been abruptly abandoned back on October 1st when doors were locked and employees were locked out without advance notice. The bankruptcy court handling this case ordered the stores to be reopened last week and all inventory, equipment, and fixtures to be sold "regardless of cost or loss." It's not clear whether any of the proceeds of the chain's liquidation will get distributed to the 500 or so employees that are owed an estimated $1 million for unpaid wages and benefits. The small consolation is that at least some of the wronged InkStop employees will have temporary holiday employment working at the liquidation sales. Reportedly, the liquidation companies actually do pass out regular paychecks.

Unfortunately, the bankruptcy courts have been busy lately too, and are still processing new retail filings. Just last week The Walking Company (WALK.PK) added its chain to the 2009 Retail Chapter 11 list, a list which has continued to grow all throughout the year. Too bad the InkStop stores weren't re-opened when The Walking Company was printing the going-out-of-business signs for the 90 namesake stores that it wants to liquidate immediately. The liquidation signage reportedly was ready to post even before the Chapter 11 papers were filed. If all goes as planned, 120 Walking Company stores will emerge from bankruptcy, but the company's last eight Big Dog stores will be put to sleep.

Two other retail chains will be keeping themselves busy with head-to-head competition for the rest of 2009 and for all of 2010. Qdoba (JACK) and Chipotle (CMG) restaurant chains have both been expanding throughout this recessionary year, sometimes opening stores in the same cities at the same time. For example, a new Qdoba and a new Chipotle were both opened within two days of each other in Modesto, CA. Only four miles separates the two fast-food Mexican restaurants, so basically they are both marketing to the same people in the same neighborhood.

This ojo-por-ojo competition happens a lot between Qdoba and Chipotle. Recently Qdoba added a Kids Meal menu starting at $3.39. That was in response to Chipotle's new Kids Menu with prices starting at $2.95. Qdoba offered a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entrée as an introductory deal. Chipotle offers a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entrée one day every week.

Qdoba sponsors the Boston Red Sox. Chipotle sponsors Garmin-Slipstream Pro Cycling. Qdoba was ranked #94 on the Entrepreneur Franchise 500 list. Chipotle got five top-five mentions on the 2009 Zagat Fast Food survey. Qdoba has a customer loyalty program. Chipotle has a 2010 global store expansion planned in London. Qdoba has online ordering. Chipotle has an iPhone app. Qdoba has burrito trivia on its website. Chipotle has pencil tapping on its website. (Both are worth checking out.)

Chipotle is committed to "Food With Integrity," which is "unprocessed, seasonal, family-farmed, sustainable, naturally raised, hormone free, and organic." Qdoba is "passionate" about serving "fresh, healthful and minimally processed ingredients whenever possible." The two chains were pretty even in the competition up to this point. From a consumer point of view, though, there's a huge difference between being "committed to food with integrity," and being "passionate whenever possible."

With its "food integrity" strategy alone, Chipotle ensures that it will win the race in the long term because eventually, all the other fast food chains are going to kill off their customers with poisoned factory farm food supplies. Therein lies the fatal flaw in the long-term business plans of almost all of America's fast food chains.

Considering the nasty business that was keeping the U.S. retail industry busy last year - massive markdowns, desperation layoffs, and war room marathons - this year's busy-ness doesn't seem so bad. Perhaps this time next year retail chains will just be busy taking care of business. Christmas wishes sometimes come true.

The consensus from the Washington Post, Business Week, the Associated Press and about 2,941 other media outlets was that November sales in the U.S. retail industry were "disappointing." According to the media headlines, the only things more disappointing than November's sales comps were the Ultimate Fighter finale, the release of James Cameron's Avatar video game, and, of course, Tiger Woods' abdication of his throne in Squeaky Cleandom.

When looking at a complete November same store sales list, there seems to be plenty to be disappointed about. Twenty-three major U.S. retail chains saw their same store sales decline from November, 2008. Last November was not the start of a jolly holiday shopping season by any standard, so it was hoped, assumed, and expected that it would not be difficult for U.S. retailers to outperform themselves and show some positive year-over-year progress.

The progress, though, wasn't obvious, so the headlines declared the retail industry to be a disappointment. Upon closer examination, there are some disappointing aspects of the retail sector in November, but really not enough to justify the blanket characterization of disappointment found in the media headlines. Who really was all that disappointed with November's same store sales results?

BJ's and Buckle are not disappointed because when you look at a comparison of November same store sales figures, these two chains are the only two major U.S. retailers that have had positive same store sales growth for the past four Novembers in a row. BJ's and Buckle havn't had much reason to be disappointed all year, but they have had a reason to be confused. They still can't figure out what this recession fuss is all about.

Aeropostale, Ross, TJX and Walgreen shouldn't be too disappointed because their November 2009 same store sales gains exceeded the losses they suffered in the cataclysmic November of 2008. That's quite an accomplishment considering how very few things about the U.S. retail industry have rebounded completely from last year's meltdown.

The nine other chains that don't have a minus sign in front of their November same store sales numbers can't be all that disappointed, even if they had hoped and expected more from themselves. Even flat results were positive because as we all know too well, things could have been, and certainly have been, a lot worse.

Macy's, American Eagle, Neiman Marcus, Bon-Ton, Duckwall-ALCO, JC Penney, Stein Mart, Target, Wet Seal, and Zumiez are probably not thrilled to have negative same store sales percentages, but at least the numbers behind their minus signs are smaller than they were last November. That represents positive movement for these ten chains, and it's difficult to be disappointed about anything moving in the direction of stabilization.

So if these 25 major U.S. retail chains aren't disappointed in their November 2009 same store sales results, where is all the disappointment that the headlines are screaming about?

Well, it's never good to be the one at the bottom of the monthly same store sales list, especially when you're a chain that derives much of your brand identity from looking down your noses at everyone else. So, of course, Saks (SKS) is disappointed that the affluent elite didn't cash in more of their recent stock market gains and exchange it for material evidence of their fame and fortune in November. Saks is especially disappointed that luxury rival Neiman Marcus didn't join them in their double-digit disgrace. Apparently the Limited Edition Jaguar in the 2009 Neiman Marcus Christmas catalogue is moving better than the $2,350 Christian Loubitin No 1 Pure Perfume for men at Saks. There's just no accounting for bad taste.

The Gap (GPS) should be disappointed because for the fifth year in a row it wasn't able to return a positive November same store sales figure with its namesake chain, even with an aggressive amount of advertising this year. Those dancy-rapping cheer-chanting kids in the current Gap TV ads are certainly attention-getting enough. (And really - "how cute are those boots?") Apparently, though, even Black Friday week commercials every 15 minutes didn't help the chain sell enough of the stuff that their junior pitch squad was doing back flips about to keep it from sliding back to 2003 sales levels. This actually is probably more surprising than disappointing to the Gap execs.

If same store sales is a true reflection of the number of shoppers and the prices they're paying year-over-year, then the Gap's five-year November struggle may be revealing the gap between what the chain's buyers are buying and what the consuming public thinks are the right products at the right prices. The thing that the Gap is probably most clearly illustrating for the retail industry is that you can't really make up for merchandising misses with marketing. Lucky for the Gap, though, (and particularly lucky for the Gap advertising agency) they can usually find a plausible way to blame the weather or the calendar or the economy for just about any of their November retailing missteps. If it wasn't for (fill in the blank with a convenient excuse), those Gap Kids $98 Stella McCartney "comfy sweaters" would be flying out the door.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is another retail chain that should be disappointed with its November same store sales because on top of the 28% decline they saw in November 2008, they underperformed themselves by another 17% this November. Seventeen must be the chain's lucky number because November 2009 marks the 17th month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch has returned double-digit negative same store sales figures. And if that's not disappointing enough, Abercrombie should be disappointed that its third quarter profits fell 39%. It's doubtful, though, that Abercrombie will ever actually admit that it is disappointed with anything related to its performance. Honest self-evaluation doesn't really seem to be one of Mike Jeffries' leadership values.

Dillard's (DDS) is another chain that can be included in the disappointed retailers club because its November sales have been on a downward slide for the entire decade. The $438 million that Dillard's cash registers rang up in November, 2009 was only slightly more than what was handed to them by their customers in November, 1993. It's got to be disappointing to have regressed 16 years in your business results.

If the retail industry was a game of Chutes and Ladders (and really, if you think about it, it is), and Dillard's is one of the players on the game board, then its brightly colored plastic game piece landed on that dreaded space #87 back in 2001. And since then, the chain has been on a decade-long ride down the biggest chute on the game board.

It's not clear whether Dillard's has actually reached the bottom of the chute yet, or if it will continue to slide until it falls off the board completely. There are some experts who have predicted "game over" for Dillard's already. Obviously, though, Wall Street is betting that the chain has bounced off the bottom of the chute and is ready to roll the dice and proceed with play since Dillard's "disappointing" November sales numbers actually created a rise in its stock prices.

In fact, nearly half of the retailers with same stores sales declines in November saw an immediate lift to their stock prices after reporting their negative results. How does that compute?

The answer to that, of course, is profit - either real in the present or imaginary in the future. Even if the strength of the chain has decreased, which is what same store sales is supposed to be showing us, if the chain still manages to find a way to turn a profit, or even if it looks like the chain has the promise of finding a way to turn a profit in the near future, Wall Street rewards it. This is exactly what happened this month with Dillard's. Even though its same store sales revealed a dismally digressed state of affairs, its profit trumped everything and it received analyst praise and a subsequent lift in stock prices.

After Wall Street rewarded so many of this month's decliners, it leaves me wondering why we go through this same store sales exercise every month if the financial community is going to ignore the results anyway. Then again, my overall opinion that same store sales is a misused and grossly misinterpreted measurement leaves me bewildered about the same store sales game just about every month.

So, from the perspective of proving that the time, effort, and energy devoted to the same store sales game every month is time, effort, and energy misspent, November didn't disappoint.

Twas the night before Cyber Monday and all through the 'net, hardly a new special was posted - did the e-tailers forget?

Five years ago Cyber Monday didn't exist. In 2005 when the National Retail Federation was first credited for dubbing the Monday after Thanksgiving as "Cyber Monday," the day really wasn't a record-breaking online shopping day at all. So, why all the fuss? Well, since the U.S. retail industry had long since taken possession of every major and minor national holiday in America, it needed a fresh way to trigger the buying impulse. What better way to do that than with a fabricated retail event of its own creation? With the appropriate amount of media hype, any day can be turned into a consuming phenonmenon, right?

The theory worked for the first three years of the make-believe online shopping day of deals. Retailers were willing to play along, and created Black Friday-type one-day only online specials to give Cyber Monday some substance and credibility. Why not?

Well, there's at least one big "why not" for Cyber Monday specials this year - the newfound American frugality. The drastic changes in consuming, or the fear of them, have launched an aggressive national game of Retail Stratego, along with the prevailing retail tactic of pre-emptive strikes. Most retailers aren't focusing on big one-day only Cyber Monday sales, because if they did, they would risk losing their share of this year's diminished holiday shopping budgets.

So instead of Cyber Monday, this year we really had "Black Weekend," which started for many major retailers on Thanksgiving Day and will extend through at least Monday, if not beyond. The deals that most online shoppers will see on Cyber Monday 2009 are the same deals that could have been seen running on e-commerce websites all weekend. That's good news for those who have been filling their virtual shoppng carts already. It's not such great news for those who want to have a semi-legitimate excuse for shopping on the job on Cyber Monday.

Even though retailers are not wholeheartedly honoring the sanctity of the day itself, there are still some efforts being made to make the day worth the hype. Retailers who are running specific one-day only Cyber Monday specials include:

• Amazon (AMZN)
  A designated page lists "Cyber Monday" deals, but they were available on Sunday, and some of them will be sold out before Monday begins. For these and other "lightning specials" that Amazon is running this holiday season, there is a nifty little HSN-type timer that shows how long the deal will be available, and how much of the inventory is left. It's a gimmick, but it's fun.
• Dell (DELL)
  CyberMonday deals were advertised to go live at 12:01 a.m.
• Kmart
  Notice of Cyber Monday only specials was tweeted from their Twitter account, along with a link to a sneak preview page. Like Daddy Sears there was no mention of a start time, which probably means a midnight switchover.
• Overstock.com (OSTK)
  There were 89 specials dubbed "Cyber Monday," although they were also available for purchase on Sunday.
• Sears (SHLD)
  Cyber Monday specials appeared on their home page at 9:00 p.m. on Sunday night, but weren't live immediately. Presumably, they will start at 12:01 a.m., although no start time was specifically stated.
• Toys 'R Us
  There are more than 200 specials designated as "Cyber Monday Only," although they were available for purchase on Sunday.

That's Cyber Monday? Really? This is not the sum total of the deals to be had, but it pretty much sums up the only new deals that will be added to the end of a weekend of deals.

Free shipping was hyped as the universal offer for Cyber Monday. While there are plenty of shipping deals to be had, most of the "free" shipping comes with conditions. There are a few sites, however, that are offering completely free shipping with any purchase on Cyber Monday only:

• Bealls - free shipping, with no minimum order through Monday with code SHOP

• Bedford Fair Lifestyles - Free shipping on any order with coupon code 142602

• Books A Million (BAMM) - Free shipping any order with code BKLVFREE

• Cheryl & Co. - A Special Cookies & Baked Goods "Free Shipping Collection"

• Karmaloop - Free Shipping with coupon code GODEEP

• Manhattanite - Free shipping on any order with coupon code FreeShip09
• National Pet Pharmacy - Free shipping on any product in the Flea and Tick department (This is not really a Cyber Monday special, but the fact that it was included on the list made me laugh out loud.)
• Speedo - Free shipping on any order with coupon code NWARL
• Waterford - Free shipping and free gift wrap with coupon code BLACKFRIDAY

That's the whole Cyber Monday free shipping list? Really? It's much shorter than the list of websites with completely free shipping every day.

Undoubtedly there will be more deals and more shipping freebies available on Cyber Monday than are listed here. It's just a matter of finding them, which is never a small task with bojillions of online retailers to choose from. The search is doubly difficult this year because it's hard to tell where one promotion ends and another one begins.

Serious Cyber Monday shoppers will just have to click through their favorite sites to see what pops up. That is about as much fun as sifting through the dressing room reject racks looking for something in your size to try on. To shopping addicts this is recreation. To sane people, the Cyber Monday virtual scavenger hunt this year will be much more exhaustng than fighting the mall mob was on Black Friday. It may even be frustrating enough to make you want to get some work done in your workday.

One last note about Black Weekend... My 2009 Black Friday prediction last week was that the day itself would be ridiculously busy until all the best deals were gone because unemployment is high and consumers are broke. I'm still not sure if that prediction was accurate or not. It's not that there was a lack of data or conclusion-drawing provided after Black Friday, it's just that I was in Orlando, and it was nearly impossible to get any news that didn't contain a reference to Tiger Woods.

The mystery about where the world's most recognizable sports figure was going at 2:30 a.m. on Black Friday, by the way, is not really such a mystery to those of us who spend time in Orlando. There aren't that many late-night destinations in the land of Mickey Mouse, so the answer seems pretty clear.

The Old Navy stores were scheduled to open at 3:00 a.m., so this was an obvious destination for Tiger. It makes sense, if you think about it. Nothing says "I'm sorry for my tabloid love affair Down Under" like Old Navy performance fleece and LEGO RockBand gift-with-purchase software. Unfortunately, though, Tiger didn't make it all the way to the Old Navy Black Friday sale. This is one of those cases when shopping online clearly would have been the better choice.

In a survey released yesterday, the Conference Board reported that the average U.S. household plans to spend $390 on holiday shopping this year. This is a jaw-dropping 43% lower than the $683 per-person shopping budget that the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in its 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey. Both predictions represent sales declines from 2008, but the size of those predicted declines is disturbingly disparate when you consider that one prediction is per household and the other is per person.

It's obvious which of these two survey results we all want to believe. It may not be so obvious which survey deserves to be believed.

From a purely historical perspective, neither organization is particularly accurate in its holiday shopping predictions. In 2008 the NRF's holiday intentions survey predicted a 2.2% increase in holiday spending. The Conference Board predicted a 12% decrease. In reality, there was a 3.4% sales drop in the U.S. retail industry overall in the 2008 holiday season. So the NRF was really wrong in predicting a spending increase and the Conference Board was really wrong in predicting the size of the spending decrease.

The truth about holiday spending in 2009 will probably be found somewhere between the $390 household and the $683 individual budget that the each organization's research predicts. That is a scary big gap that nobody wants to believe the retail industry will plummet into this holiday season. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, there is a recession.

One major anomaly is going to skew the 2009 holiday shopping numbers... read more...