In a survey released yesterday, the Conference Board reported that the average U.S. household plans to spend $390 on holiday shopping this year. This is a jaw-dropping 43% lower than the $683 per-person shopping budget that the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in its 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey. Both predictions represent sales declines from 2008, but the size of those predicted declines is disturbingly disparate when you consider that one prediction is per household and the other is per person.
It's obvious which of these two survey results we all want to believe. It may not be so obvious which survey deserves to be believed.
From a purely historical perspective, neither organization is particularly accurate in its holiday shopping predictions. In 2008 the NRF's holiday intentions survey predicted a 2.2% increase in holiday spending. The Conference Board predicted a 12% decrease. In reality, there was a 3.4% sales drop in the U.S. retail industry overall in the 2008 holiday season. So the NRF was really wrong in predicting a spending increase and the Conference Board was really wrong in predicting the size of the spending decrease.
The truth about holiday spending in 2009 will probably be found somewhere between the $390 household and the $683 individual budget that the each organization's research predicts. That is a scary big gap that nobody wants to believe the retail industry will plummet into this holiday season. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, there is a recession.
One major anomaly is going to skew the 2009 holiday shopping numbers... read more...
Comments
Great article, the shopping patterns of Americans have and will be changed starting this season. The Black Friday will never be the same as your article stated the “gotta buy” will be the major factor since the “urge” has been diminished due to low or non existing credit card limits for most people.
The guy buy smart will perhaps replace the gotta buy this year, and if recession continues as it is sales will be smaller year after year.
Advice? keep your cash in your pocket and wait to see if those retailers post better “deals” right before december 24 if not, do like I do every year and wait after january 1 to start shopping around!