In the busiest part of a transaction-challenged retail year, retailers would be happy to just focus on keeping their cash registers as busy as possible. But in the final weeks of a recession year, there are other pesky matters on the retail "To Do" list that are adding to the busy-ness of the U.S. retail industry. Things like last-minute openings and closings, Hail Mary Chapter 11 filings, liquidation sales, lease renegotiations, and those annoying holiday crime reports are stealing focus and keeping some retailers extra busy this year.

Dollar General (DG) is one of the busiest of the busy retailers. The public-turned-private chain went public again in November and 22 million shares changed hands at a price slightly higher than expected. Shortly after that, the chain announced that its year-to-date profits were up 296% over last year. Dollar General's merchandisers expect to grow those profits even more with the chain-specific designs they have been creating for their home and apparel product lines which will be mixed in with the private label products already stocked on the store's shelves.

The discount chain is aggressively courting holiday business by offering a selection of 400 toys, many priced at $5 or lower, in fearless response to Wal-Mart's 100 toys for $10 campaign. (For the record, Wal-Mart has not reported a triple-digit profit increase so far in 2009.) And Dollar General is also going toe-to-toe with convenience stores in Tennessee and Georgia by adding lottery tickets to its merchandising mix in those two states.

Running the 500 stores that Dollar General added to the 2009 Store Openings list has also kept its employees busy this year. And the 50 Dollar General stores that the chain will be adding every month to the Store Openings list in 2010 isn't going to leave much time for slacking off next year either.

One thing that is keeping Dollar General particularly busy lately is the number of police officers who have been frequenting its stores. At least 21 crimes were committed in Dollar General stores in the past six weeks, more than half of which were armed robberies. While the chain takes pride in its "small, convenient neighborhood stores," located in areas that are underserved by other retailers, often there's a good reason why other retailers don't want to set up shop across the street.

Apparently Dollar General stores are quickly taking their place alongside convenience stores as desirable targets for thieves, armed robbers, flim-flam artists, and even arsonists. Hopefully Dollar General is not viewing all of this as just a cost of doing business. Having worked with the convenience store industry, I have seen firsthand how the perceived threat of crime can make every aspect of running a retail business extremely difficult. If just one of these crimes turns bloody, it's going to take more than low-priced toys, advancement opportunities, and a good PR firm to clean up the mess.

One thing Dollar General has not been busy doing is adding any female talent to its board of directors. According to a new report on female executive leadership, Dollar General has the dubious distinction of being the only Fortune 500 retail chain without a female board member, even though it would be safe to assume that the majority of both its customers and employees are female. Dollar General just added two new members to its board this fall, both of them male. Perhaps the lack of female presence in the boardroom is linked somehow to the EEOC lawsuit filed against the chain this fall for sexual harassment. It could be just a coincidence, I suppose.

Another busy retail chain is the chain that opened more than 150 stores within a matter of a few days last week. That was not as impossible as it sounds, because in this case, the stores were InkStop locations which had been abruptly abandoned back on October 1st when doors were locked and employees were locked out without advance notice. The bankruptcy court handling this case ordered the stores to be reopened last week and all inventory, equipment, and fixtures to be sold "regardless of cost or loss." It's not clear whether any of the proceeds of the chain's liquidation will get distributed to the 500 or so employees that are owed an estimated $1 million for unpaid wages and benefits. The small consolation is that at least some of the wronged InkStop employees will have temporary holiday employment working at the liquidation sales. Reportedly, the liquidation companies actually do pass out regular paychecks.

Unfortunately, the bankruptcy courts have been busy lately too, and are still processing new retail filings. Just last week The Walking Company (WALK.PK) added its chain to the 2009 Retail Chapter 11 list, a list which has continued to grow all throughout the year. Too bad the InkStop stores weren't re-opened when The Walking Company was printing the going-out-of-business signs for the 90 namesake stores that it wants to liquidate immediately. The liquidation signage reportedly was ready to post even before the Chapter 11 papers were filed. If all goes as planned, 120 Walking Company stores will emerge from bankruptcy, but the company's last eight Big Dog stores will be put to sleep.

Two other retail chains will be keeping themselves busy with head-to-head competition for the rest of 2009 and for all of 2010. Qdoba (JACK) and Chipotle (CMG) restaurant chains have both been expanding throughout this recessionary year, sometimes opening stores in the same cities at the same time. For example, a new Qdoba and a new Chipotle were both opened within two days of each other in Modesto, CA. Only four miles separates the two fast-food Mexican restaurants, so basically they are both marketing to the same people in the same neighborhood.

This ojo-por-ojo competition happens a lot between Qdoba and Chipotle. Recently Qdoba added a Kids Meal menu starting at $3.39. That was in response to Chipotle's new Kids Menu with prices starting at $2.95. Qdoba offered a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entrée as an introductory deal. Chipotle offers a free kids' meal with purchase of a regular entrée one day every week.

Qdoba sponsors the Boston Red Sox. Chipotle sponsors Garmin-Slipstream Pro Cycling. Qdoba was ranked #94 on the Entrepreneur Franchise 500 list. Chipotle got five top-five mentions on the 2009 Zagat Fast Food survey. Qdoba has a customer loyalty program. Chipotle has a 2010 global store expansion planned in London. Qdoba has online ordering. Chipotle has an iPhone app. Qdoba has burrito trivia on its website. Chipotle has pencil tapping on its website. (Both are worth checking out.)

Chipotle is committed to "Food With Integrity," which is "unprocessed, seasonal, family-farmed, sustainable, naturally raised, hormone free, and organic." Qdoba is "passionate" about serving "fresh, healthful and minimally processed ingredients whenever possible." The two chains were pretty even in the competition up to this point. From a consumer point of view, though, there's a huge difference between being "committed to food with integrity," and being "passionate whenever possible."

With its "food integrity" strategy alone, Chipotle ensures that it will win the race in the long term because eventually, all the other fast food chains are going to kill off their customers with poisoned factory farm food supplies. Therein lies the fatal flaw in the long-term business plans of almost all of America's fast food chains.

Considering the nasty business that was keeping the U.S. retail industry busy last year - massive markdowns, desperation layoffs, and war room marathons - this year's busy-ness doesn't seem so bad. Perhaps this time next year retail chains will just be busy taking care of business. Christmas wishes sometimes come true.

The consensus from the Washington Post, Business Week, the Associated Press and about 2,941 other media outlets was that November sales in the U.S. retail industry were "disappointing." According to the media headlines, the only things more disappointing than November's sales comps were the Ultimate Fighter finale, the release of James Cameron's Avatar video game, and, of course, Tiger Woods' abdication of his throne in Squeaky Cleandom.

When looking at a complete November same store sales list, there seems to be plenty to be disappointed about. Twenty-three major U.S. retail chains saw their same store sales decline from November, 2008. Last November was not the start of a jolly holiday shopping season by any standard, so it was hoped, assumed, and expected that it would not be difficult for U.S. retailers to outperform themselves and show some positive year-over-year progress.

The progress, though, wasn't obvious, so the headlines declared the retail industry to be a disappointment. Upon closer examination, there are some disappointing aspects of the retail sector in November, but really not enough to justify the blanket characterization of disappointment found in the media headlines. Who really was all that disappointed with November's same store sales results?

BJ's and Buckle are not disappointed because when you look at a comparison of November same store sales figures, these two chains are the only two major U.S. retailers that have had positive same store sales growth for the past four Novembers in a row. BJ's and Buckle havn't had much reason to be disappointed all year, but they have had a reason to be confused. They still can't figure out what this recession fuss is all about.

Aeropostale, Ross, TJX and Walgreen shouldn't be too disappointed because their November 2009 same store sales gains exceeded the losses they suffered in the cataclysmic November of 2008. That's quite an accomplishment considering how very few things about the U.S. retail industry have rebounded completely from last year's meltdown.

The nine other chains that don't have a minus sign in front of their November same store sales numbers can't be all that disappointed, even if they had hoped and expected more from themselves. Even flat results were positive because as we all know too well, things could have been, and certainly have been, a lot worse.

Macy's, American Eagle, Neiman Marcus, Bon-Ton, Duckwall-ALCO, JC Penney, Stein Mart, Target, Wet Seal, and Zumiez are probably not thrilled to have negative same store sales percentages, but at least the numbers behind their minus signs are smaller than they were last November. That represents positive movement for these ten chains, and it's difficult to be disappointed about anything moving in the direction of stabilization.

So if these 25 major U.S. retail chains aren't disappointed in their November 2009 same store sales results, where is all the disappointment that the headlines are screaming about?

Well, it's never good to be the one at the bottom of the monthly same store sales list, especially when you're a chain that derives much of your brand identity from looking down your noses at everyone else. So, of course, Saks (SKS) is disappointed that the affluent elite didn't cash in more of their recent stock market gains and exchange it for material evidence of their fame and fortune in November. Saks is especially disappointed that luxury rival Neiman Marcus didn't join them in their double-digit disgrace. Apparently the Limited Edition Jaguar in the 2009 Neiman Marcus Christmas catalogue is moving better than the $2,350 Christian Loubitin No 1 Pure Perfume for men at Saks. There's just no accounting for bad taste.

The Gap (GPS) should be disappointed because for the fifth year in a row it wasn't able to return a positive November same store sales figure with its namesake chain, even with an aggressive amount of advertising this year. Those dancy-rapping cheer-chanting kids in the current Gap TV ads are certainly attention-getting enough. (And really - "how cute are those boots?") Apparently, though, even Black Friday week commercials every 15 minutes didn't help the chain sell enough of the stuff that their junior pitch squad was doing back flips about to keep it from sliding back to 2003 sales levels. This actually is probably more surprising than disappointing to the Gap execs.

If same store sales is a true reflection of the number of shoppers and the prices they're paying year-over-year, then the Gap's five-year November struggle may be revealing the gap between what the chain's buyers are buying and what the consuming public thinks are the right products at the right prices. The thing that the Gap is probably most clearly illustrating for the retail industry is that you can't really make up for merchandising misses with marketing. Lucky for the Gap, though, (and particularly lucky for the Gap advertising agency) they can usually find a plausible way to blame the weather or the calendar or the economy for just about any of their November retailing missteps. If it wasn't for (fill in the blank with a convenient excuse), those Gap Kids $98 Stella McCartney "comfy sweaters" would be flying out the door.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is another retail chain that should be disappointed with its November same store sales because on top of the 28% decline they saw in November 2008, they underperformed themselves by another 17% this November. Seventeen must be the chain's lucky number because November 2009 marks the 17th month in a row that Abercrombie & Fitch has returned double-digit negative same store sales figures. And if that's not disappointing enough, Abercrombie should be disappointed that its third quarter profits fell 39%. It's doubtful, though, that Abercrombie will ever actually admit that it is disappointed with anything related to its performance. Honest self-evaluation doesn't really seem to be one of Mike Jeffries' leadership values.

Dillard's (DDS) is another chain that can be included in the disappointed retailers club because its November sales have been on a downward slide for the entire decade. The $438 million that Dillard's cash registers rang up in November, 2009 was only slightly more than what was handed to them by their customers in November, 1993. It's got to be disappointing to have regressed 16 years in your business results.

If the retail industry was a game of Chutes and Ladders (and really, if you think about it, it is), and Dillard's is one of the players on the game board, then its brightly colored plastic game piece landed on that dreaded space #87 back in 2001. And since then, the chain has been on a decade-long ride down the biggest chute on the game board.

It's not clear whether Dillard's has actually reached the bottom of the chute yet, or if it will continue to slide until it falls off the board completely. There are some experts who have predicted "game over" for Dillard's already. Obviously, though, Wall Street is betting that the chain has bounced off the bottom of the chute and is ready to roll the dice and proceed with play since Dillard's "disappointing" November sales numbers actually created a rise in its stock prices.

In fact, nearly half of the retailers with same stores sales declines in November saw an immediate lift to their stock prices after reporting their negative results. How does that compute?

The answer to that, of course, is profit - either real in the present or imaginary in the future. Even if the strength of the chain has decreased, which is what same store sales is supposed to be showing us, if the chain still manages to find a way to turn a profit, or even if it looks like the chain has the promise of finding a way to turn a profit in the near future, Wall Street rewards it. This is exactly what happened this month with Dillard's. Even though its same store sales revealed a dismally digressed state of affairs, its profit trumped everything and it received analyst praise and a subsequent lift in stock prices.

After Wall Street rewarded so many of this month's decliners, it leaves me wondering why we go through this same store sales exercise every month if the financial community is going to ignore the results anyway. Then again, my overall opinion that same store sales is a misused and grossly misinterpreted measurement leaves me bewildered about the same store sales game just about every month.

So, from the perspective of proving that the time, effort, and energy devoted to the same store sales game every month is time, effort, and energy misspent, November didn't disappoint.

Twas the night before Cyber Monday and all through the 'net, hardly a new special was posted - did the e-tailers forget?

Five years ago Cyber Monday didn't exist. In 2005 when the National Retail Federation was first credited for dubbing the Monday after Thanksgiving as "Cyber Monday," the day really wasn't a record-breaking online shopping day at all. So, why all the fuss? Well, since the U.S. retail industry had long since taken possession of every major and minor national holiday in America, it needed a fresh way to trigger the buying impulse. What better way to do that than with a fabricated retail event of its own creation? With the appropriate amount of media hype, any day can be turned into a consuming phenonmenon, right?

The theory worked for the first three years of the make-believe online shopping day of deals. Retailers were willing to play along, and created Black Friday-type one-day only online specials to give Cyber Monday some substance and credibility. Why not?

Well, there's at least one big "why not" for Cyber Monday specials this year - the newfound American frugality. The drastic changes in consuming, or the fear of them, have launched an aggressive national game of Retail Stratego, along with the prevailing retail tactic of pre-emptive strikes. Most retailers aren't focusing on big one-day only Cyber Monday sales, because if they did, they would risk losing their share of this year's diminished holiday shopping budgets.

So instead of Cyber Monday, this year we really had "Black Weekend," which started for many major retailers on Thanksgiving Day and will extend through at least Monday, if not beyond. The deals that most online shoppers will see on Cyber Monday 2009 are the same deals that could have been seen running on e-commerce websites all weekend. That's good news for those who have been filling their virtual shoppng carts already. It's not such great news for those who want to have a semi-legitimate excuse for shopping on the job on Cyber Monday.

Even though retailers are not wholeheartedly honoring the sanctity of the day itself, there are still some efforts being made to make the day worth the hype. Retailers who are running specific one-day only Cyber Monday specials include:

• Amazon (AMZN)
  A designated page lists "Cyber Monday" deals, but they were available on Sunday, and some of them will be sold out before Monday begins. For these and other "lightning specials" that Amazon is running this holiday season, there is a nifty little HSN-type timer that shows how long the deal will be available, and how much of the inventory is left. It's a gimmick, but it's fun.
• Dell (DELL)
  CyberMonday deals were advertised to go live at 12:01 a.m.
• Kmart
  Notice of Cyber Monday only specials was tweeted from their Twitter account, along with a link to a sneak preview page. Like Daddy Sears there was no mention of a start time, which probably means a midnight switchover.
• Overstock.com (OSTK)
  There were 89 specials dubbed "Cyber Monday," although they were also available for purchase on Sunday.
• Sears (SHLD)
  Cyber Monday specials appeared on their home page at 9:00 p.m. on Sunday night, but weren't live immediately. Presumably, they will start at 12:01 a.m., although no start time was specifically stated.
• Toys 'R Us
  There are more than 200 specials designated as "Cyber Monday Only," although they were available for purchase on Sunday.

That's Cyber Monday? Really? This is not the sum total of the deals to be had, but it pretty much sums up the only new deals that will be added to the end of a weekend of deals.

Free shipping was hyped as the universal offer for Cyber Monday. While there are plenty of shipping deals to be had, most of the "free" shipping comes with conditions. There are a few sites, however, that are offering completely free shipping with any purchase on Cyber Monday only:

• Bealls - free shipping, with no minimum order through Monday with code SHOP

• Bedford Fair Lifestyles - Free shipping on any order with coupon code 142602

• Books A Million (BAMM) - Free shipping any order with code BKLVFREE

• Cheryl & Co. - A Special Cookies & Baked Goods "Free Shipping Collection"

• Karmaloop - Free Shipping with coupon code GODEEP

• Manhattanite - Free shipping on any order with coupon code FreeShip09
• National Pet Pharmacy - Free shipping on any product in the Flea and Tick department (This is not really a Cyber Monday special, but the fact that it was included on the list made me laugh out loud.)
• Speedo - Free shipping on any order with coupon code NWARL
• Waterford - Free shipping and free gift wrap with coupon code BLACKFRIDAY

That's the whole Cyber Monday free shipping list? Really? It's much shorter than the list of websites with completely free shipping every day.

Undoubtedly there will be more deals and more shipping freebies available on Cyber Monday than are listed here. It's just a matter of finding them, which is never a small task with bojillions of online retailers to choose from. The search is doubly difficult this year because it's hard to tell where one promotion ends and another one begins.

Serious Cyber Monday shoppers will just have to click through their favorite sites to see what pops up. That is about as much fun as sifting through the dressing room reject racks looking for something in your size to try on. To shopping addicts this is recreation. To sane people, the Cyber Monday virtual scavenger hunt this year will be much more exhaustng than fighting the mall mob was on Black Friday. It may even be frustrating enough to make you want to get some work done in your workday.

One last note about Black Weekend... My 2009 Black Friday prediction last week was that the day itself would be ridiculously busy until all the best deals were gone because unemployment is high and consumers are broke. I'm still not sure if that prediction was accurate or not. It's not that there was a lack of data or conclusion-drawing provided after Black Friday, it's just that I was in Orlando, and it was nearly impossible to get any news that didn't contain a reference to Tiger Woods.

The mystery about where the world's most recognizable sports figure was going at 2:30 a.m. on Black Friday, by the way, is not really such a mystery to those of us who spend time in Orlando. There aren't that many late-night destinations in the land of Mickey Mouse, so the answer seems pretty clear.

The Old Navy stores were scheduled to open at 3:00 a.m., so this was an obvious destination for Tiger. It makes sense, if you think about it. Nothing says "I'm sorry for my tabloid love affair Down Under" like Old Navy performance fleece and LEGO RockBand gift-with-purchase software. Unfortunately, though, Tiger didn't make it all the way to the Old Navy Black Friday sale. This is one of those cases when shopping online clearly would have been the better choice.

In a survey released yesterday, the Conference Board reported that the average U.S. household plans to spend $390 on holiday shopping this year. This is a jaw-dropping 43% lower than the $683 per-person shopping budget that the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in its 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey. Both predictions represent sales declines from 2008, but the size of those predicted declines is disturbingly disparate when you consider that one prediction is per household and the other is per person.

It's obvious which of these two survey results we all want to believe. It may not be so obvious which survey deserves to be believed.

From a purely historical perspective, neither organization is particularly accurate in its holiday shopping predictions. In 2008 the NRF's holiday intentions survey predicted a 2.2% increase in holiday spending. The Conference Board predicted a 12% decrease. In reality, there was a 3.4% sales drop in the U.S. retail industry overall in the 2008 holiday season. So the NRF was really wrong in predicting a spending increase and the Conference Board was really wrong in predicting the size of the spending decrease.

The truth about holiday spending in 2009 will probably be found somewhere between the $390 household and the $683 individual budget that the each organization's research predicts. That is a scary big gap that nobody wants to believe the retail industry will plummet into this holiday season. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, there is a recession.

One major anomaly is going to skew the 2009 holiday shopping numbers... read more...

Since recession-related purging has ended for most major chains, the numbers from the U.S. retail industry in the first half of November are now a reflection of retailing itself, not just a byproduct of economic chaos. There are real retail struggles behind store closings, real customers behind store openings, and real strategy behind 2010 expansion plans. Without so much recessionary noise, what November numbers show is a real struggle for U.S. retailers. That is, the struggle for retail relevance.

The latest chain to go the way of the irrelevant is Trans World Entertainment Corp (TWMC), which announced that it would be adding 125 f.y.e (for your entertainment) stores to the 2009 Store Closings list at the end of the holiday shopping season. This is just the latest downsizing move after the retail CD and DVD chain closed 101 stores last year and has operated for 11 consecutive quarters without turning a profit.

After three years of doing basically the same things in the same ways and expecting different results, f.y.e. has come up with an aggressive strategy for this holiday season. In 50 of its stores, all single music CDs will be selling for $9.99, a price which matches Apple's charge for an iTunes download. It's also a price point that will keep this last major music-movie-game retail chain competitive against all the thousands of electronics, discount, department, book stores, and other retail outlets that carry the same disc entertainment inventory.

Certainly f.y.e. needs to find a way to make itself equal to its competitors. But I'm not sure if "becoming the same" is a strong magnetic force that is going to draw people through its doors.

The chain's one definite unique selling proposition is its used inventory. Customers can't buy or sell used music, movies and games at their local Best Buy, Wal-Mart, or Borders. It seems like there would never be a better time to focus a spotlight on the ability to turn old stuff on your shelves into brand new Christmas gifts than in a holiday shopping season with record high unemployment. But f.y.e. would have to be confident that it could unload all that used merchandise, otherwise it will be ending the year having transformed itself into the world's largest garage sale.

Also losing the battle for relevance are bookstore chains B. Dalton (BKS) and Waldenbooks (BGP). Like CD's and DVDs, physical books are also being replaced by electronic and downloadable alternatives. By the time the new decade begins, the last 50 B. Dalton stores will be nothing more than a Wikipedia entry. The question is whether Waldenbooks and f.y.e. will follow B. Dalton into retail obsolescence, or whether they will find their way back to relevance. Hopefully their business models for the new decade include more than just a bet that enough people will stay stuck in the past to keep them alive.

Staying relevant is also a constant challenge in the restaurant sector of the retail industry. One chain that has risen to the challenge during the recession is quick-service chain, Panera Bread (PNRA). It's hard to believe that in the same year that the U.S. retail landscape became littered with shuttered, dark, and vacant spaces that a new Panera restaurant has opened just about every five days. In a year when Americans started buying store brand canned vegetables instead of eating out, Panera added 80 locations to the 2009 Store Openings tally.

Without any drastic menu changes or $5 meal deals, Panera saw its same-store sales grow 3.3%, its guest count rise 1.8%, and its average transaction increase 3.2% in its third quarter. While there is plenty to brag about in those numbers, the thing that CEO Ray Dellarco says he's most proud of is the fact that his chain serves "antibiotic-free, all natural, organic, low fat breads, bagels and pastries baked fresh throughout the day," according to a recent interview in the Cleveland Jewish News.

Dellarco also credits the chain's continued success to a fresh menu, and the new items that it adds to that menu five times a year. As a frequent Panera customer myself, I credit their success to something altogether different.

I have visited Panera in at least six different states and they all had two things in common - extremely friendly employees and extremely busy laptop users. The free WiFi is a definite draw and personally, I am willing to put up with the chain's rising prices, the shrinking portions, and the always dirty silverware in order to have a comfortable place to work which is run by employees who seem to be genuinely appreciative of my presence.

While I'm sure that the menu is a draw for a good number of people (fresh bread can be very addictive), what I noticed in the worst days of the recession was that Panera was filled with business people doing business when other restaurants were wondering where all their business had gone. The chain found a way to keep itself relevant by becoming a destination for people who want to eat, but need to work. In an uncomfortable economy, what could be better than comfort food eaten in a comfortable work space?

One more food-related retail chain that has remained relevant in the past year is Edible Arrangements, the special occasions fruit bouquet delivery chain. While Panera was opening one store every five days, a new Edible Arrangements store was being added to the 2009 Store Openings list about once every three days.

There is no lack of creativity for any special occasion at Edible Arrangements. They figured out at least 100 different ways to sculpt, skewer, and style produce so that it can rightfully take its place as the centerpiece of any gathering. Creative or not, though, it's not obvious how the chain has continued to thrive in the midst of a newfound American frugality.

Sending flowers is not cheap. Sending a "bouquet" of hand-cut chocolate dipped fresh fruit is even less cheap. But if given a choice between fresh-cut flowers that you can look at for less than a week, and a cornucopia of fresh-cut fruit that you can munch on for about that same period of time, the edible choice somehow seems less extravagant.

I have seen Edible Arrangements show up at a baby shower, a funeral luncheon, and a pre-surgery head-shaving party. Each of the senders of the edible bouquet made it known that they had received a gift of fruit themselves. I imagine it happens that way a lot.

Flowers are nice. Flowered shaped pineapples are memorable. Memorable trumps nice. Edible Arrangements keeps growing.

Leveraging its own success, Edible Arrangements has dared to launch a new concept called Frutation, in the hope that a flair for fruit can become relevant for everyday living. The Frutation menu includes FruSalads (greens and fruit), FruSalsas (pita and fruit dip), FruZees (drinkable fruit), fruit sundaes (banana split without the ice cream), and, of course, their famous dipped fruit creations.

It's risky to introduce a new concept into any economy, much less a deeply recessed one. It's even riskier to separate Frutation from its successful and well-established birth brand, but that's exactly what founder and CEO Tariq Farid has decided to do.

The first standalone Frutation opened in Puerto Rico in October, and one month later, Farid is confident that 50 Frutation franchise agreements will be signed before 2010 has barely begun. This is in addition to the new Edible Arrangement locations that Farid hopes will be opening every week in 2010. And since that's hardly enough to keep an innovator like Farid busy, he will be adding a new Isbanbul Edible Arrangements location to the 2010 Global Store Openings list just to keep things interesting.

Other retailers - like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - that seem to be losing their relevance in their home country may be using global expansion as their workaround plan. But there are still plenty of U.S. retail chains that believe that there is more market share to be gained in America.

In fact the 2010 Store Openings list has more than 5,100 plans for expansion on it already. This is a completely different kind of U.S. retail industry list than was being amassed at this same time last year. Admittedly until lights are on, shelves are stocked, and doors are opened, this is still just a list of dreams. But the fact that such a wish list exists at all is completely relevant.

After same store sales figures were released last week, U.S. retail industry experts got busy trying to figure out how they could predict holiday sales based on October's results. Reuters concluded that holiday sales would be "tepid." Deloitte Research says they'll be "unchanged." Retail Metrics says they will "rise modestly." A little more research would undoubtedly reveal some individual or organization that sees October same store sales as an indicator of an unexpected holiday boom, and another who's certain that the monthly figures are warning us about a startling seasonal bust.

One of the reasons why there are no consistent conclusions about what October's same store sales figures mean for the final two shopping months of 2009 is because using long-term measurements to predict short-term performance is about as scientific as the penicillin experiment growing in the back corner of my refrigerator.

If you want to compare and predict sequential months you need month-over-month sequential measurements, not year-over-year historical measurements. Or, to put it in a more holiday-friendly way, it's not the job of the ghost of Octobers past to reveal the visions of the holiday shopping season future.

So, instead of trying to make October same store sales figures mean something they don't, let's look at what they do tell us instead.

For instance, when looking at a multi-year comparison of October same store sales, it's easy to see that Dillard's (DDS), Stein Mart (SMRT), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) haven't seen positive growth in four year's worth of Octobers. The fact that these three major U.S. retail chains have been consistently getting worse at figuring out what to do to make their Octobers productive is something pretty significant that year-over-year same store sales numbers can validly tell us.

Add to that a multi-year comparison of September same store sales figures, and we find that the same three major chains have declined in their Septembers as well. That is a same store sales revelation that indicates there might be three major retail chains in danger of becoming irrelevant on the U.S. retail landscape. (In fact, Dillard's was identified as being "high risk," and Abercrombie and Fitch was identified as being "medium risk" on one retail bankruptcy risk assessment in 2009.)

Comparing this October's same store sales results with past Octobers can also provide us with some other interesting revelations.

Chains with October, 2009 Sales Levels Higher Than Before the Recession:

• TJ Maxx (TJX)
• Ross (ROST)

Chains with Positive October 2009 Same Store Sales, That Are Still Performing At 2005 Sales Levels:

• Nordstrom (JWN)
• Bon-Ton (BONT)

Chains That Have Experienced Growth Every October Since the Recession Began:

• Aeropostale (ARO)
• Buckle (BKE)
• Walgreens (WAG)
• BJ's Wholesale Club

Chains That Have Experienced Declines Every October Since the Recession Began:

• Limited (LTD)
• Macy's (M)
• Gap (GPS)
• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
• JCPenney (JCP)
• Wet Seal (WTSLA)

Chains That Have Experienced Declines Every October Since Before the Recession Began:

• Stage Stores (SSI)
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
• Dillard's (DDS)
• Stein Mart (SMRT)
• Hot Topic (HOTT)

While October trends can't accurately predict November and December results, four-year trends can certainly give some valid insight about a chain's relevance, leadership, innovation, resiliency, and consumer appeal. Based on that, here are my predictions for the 2009 holiday shopping season (because we don't have quite enough opinions expressed about this already).

Ross, TJX Stores, Aeropostale, Buckle, Walgreens, and BJ's Wholesale Club will see year-over-year sales growth. Stage Stores, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dillard's, and Stein Mart will experience declines and will have the chutzpah to try to play the "challenging economic environment" card at least one more time. Every other chain will be somewhere in between.

Overall, while consumers might not be as panicked as they were in the 2008 holiday shopping season, this year there are 10 million more consumers who don't have jobs, unemployment benefits, or medical insurance, who are burning through their savings, chronically unemployed and borderline desperate, and who won't be buying seasonal merchandise even if it's marked down 90% because they just can't.

Black Friday pre-opening crowds will be ridiculous in size, and the first hour of every store's Black Friday sales day will be out of control. Unfortunately I think there will be at least one senseless Black Friday consumer frenzy tragedy, and we will all get the opportunity once again to re-evaluate our unconscious and self-destructive addiction to the acquisition of stuff.

My word to describe this year's holiday results - because everybody else got a word - is "unsettled." I think that is the word that will accurately describe the condition of both retailers and consumers this holiday shopping season - with one foot in a past that no longer exists, and one foot that doesn't know exactly where to plant itself in a new reality that has yet to be clearly defined.

It's not exactly the most ho-ho-hopeful word, but it's not going to be the most jolly retail holiday on record either. Making peace with that in advance, though, takes some of the pressure off and it might even allow everyone in the U.S. retail industry to just relax and enjoy the season a little bit more.

Wouldn't a reduction in year-over-year stress represent a holiday improvement? It would be great if some analyst somewhere would create a way to quantify that. Except then we'd all have to worry about finding ways to beat those expectations too.

When looking at the numbers from the U.S. retail industry in the second half of October, it appears that retail expansion will be gaining twice as much momentum as retail recession in the last two months of 2009. Included in the store opening figures, however, are 757 stores which have quickly popped up in the plentiful inventory of dark retail spaces across America, but which will disappear just as quickly when shoppers stop their holiday spending sprees. Seeing those empty retail spaces filled will add some cheer to the holiday shopping experience, but considering the fair weather retailers as part of an authentic trend is not really helpful.

Minus the holiday popups, the U.S. retail numbers go the other way, with nearly twice as many store closings as openings, along with a significant new batch of retail chains hanging in the balance after recently filing for Chapter 11 protection. A glimpse of real recovery is found in the 2010 Store Openings list, which is growing significantly each week. But until plans become reality, these future store openings are little more than holiday season ho-ho-hope for recovery as well.

The biggest contributor to the 2009 Store Closings list in the second half of October was Movie Gallery, the owner of the Hollywood Video chain. The company has closed 250 stores since September 1, and may close another 200 before the end of 2009. Reportedly the company has even set up a special toll-free number for the commercial landlords who haven't gotten paid lately. Establishing a dedicated unpaid rent hotline says a lot about the well-being of a company, I think.

It's interesting that earlier this month Movie Gallery staged a promotion which resulted in the donation of 20,000 DVDs to military families. For every two DVDs that customers purchased, Movie Gallery donated 3 DVDs to Operation Homefront.

Considering the company's recent downsizing activities, this DVD donation promotion could have been mostly an inventory reduction strategy. If so, clever points go to Movie Gallery. And no matter what the motivation, it was $300,000 worth of inventory well placed. It was also a great way for Movie Gallery to boost its brand higher than its main competitor, which is also busy closing 960 Blockbuster stores.

Meanwhile, last week we learned that the biggest nemesis of the two biggest movie rental chains has been busy creating more ways to make the brick-and-mortar DVD distribution system even more obsolete and irrelevant. Sony announced last week that Netflix is the partner of choice for delivering movie and television content via its PS3 systems. And strong rumors, still without credible confirmation, were also swirling around a similar partnership between Nintendo and Netflix last week. Can Wii movies be far behind?

It's been inspiring to watch little old Netflix take down two giant retailers with one strategic slingshot. For small companies with big ideas, this is a case study in the power of innovation and customer satisfaction. For large retail chains that are busy watching stock prices and each other, this is a case study in misdirected focus and short-sighted vision.

For home movie watching customers this is a case study in free enterprise at its finest. If there is a better, cheaper, faster way to deliver products, some enterprising retailer will likely find it, to the benefit of the average consumer. Right now Netflix is the American way.

Five Below is another diminutive chain that is hoping to borrow the Netflix slingshot and see what kind of damage it can do to the competition. This small regional chain, however, is not taking aim at just one or two competitors, though. Five Below is targeting an entire market segment that it wants to steal from a whole lot of different retail giants.

This new ultra discount specialty retail chain wants to steal the tween and teen customers from Best Buy with its electronic accessories, from Michael's with its art supplies, from Party City with its holiday stuff, from Bed, Bath and Beyond with its bedroom decor, and from Hot Topic with its vampire t-shirts. Five Below is also happy to lure young customers away from Wal-Mart, Dollar General, Target, Old Navy, and every other chain that carries all the cheap and unnecessary stuff that underage discretionary income can buy.

Apparently Five Below is successfully gaining "it" status with trendy cost-conscious teens already. The six new locations that it is contributing to the 2009 Store Openings list on November 6th, and the 98 stores it added to the 2010 store openings tally is proof of that.

The chain's popularity could have something to do with the fact that everything in its stores is priced below $5. But it probably also has something to do with its mission to sell "the trendiest, coolest, highest quality stuff that you just gotta have!" For now, at least, TISC! (If you don't know what that textonym means, you definitely aren't in Five Below's target market. So, if your kids drag you there, just head to the candy aisle.)

One company that wishes it still had its "it" status is Crabtree & Evelyn, which recently shuttered 25% of its chain and joined the Retail Chapter 11 list last week. It seems that the demand for pricey lotions and potions has decreased, causing Crabtree and Evelyn to downsize accordingly.

It also seems that using the Chapter 11 process as leverage to renegotiate rents and leases has become a U.S. retail standard practice this year. Chapter 11 as rent control is a strategy that won't be relevant or workable forever, so there's no time like the present for Crabtree & Evelyn to employ it.

It would have been easier if everyone in the U.S. would have made a blanket agreement at the beginning of 2009 to rollback everything - prices, salaries, net worth, etc. - by 25% across the board. That's where we're all going to land eventually anyway. Instead, the recessionary rollback has been happening in the slowest and most painful way possible because we've all been trying to hang on to an economic reality that was never all that real.

For the rest of 2009, retail momentum will probably still be rolling back overall. I think it will be key for retailers to not get panicked by the continuing decline, and not get too exhausted trying to create better results than the economy can support.

I recently watched a video about how to survive if you ever step into quicksand. (Other than Gilligan, I've never known anyone that got stuck in quicksand, but more is better when it comes to life survival strategies I think.) While I was watching this quicksand survival video, I was thinking that it was a perfect metaphor for U.S. retail industry recovery:

1) Stay calm.
2) Don't let the struggle suck you down.
3) Change your angle.
4) Wiggle free.
5) Crawl to solid ground.

If the strategy works for escaping one type of unstable soupy muck, it should work for any type of unstable external conditions that threaten to suck you down and make forward motion impossible.

The numbers in the second half of October indicate that U.S. retailers are still likely to find themselves in the middle of some more recessionary muck in the short-term. The key for retailers will be to not let it drag them down too far, find a different angle, and leave themselves some wiggle room.

Most important, retailers will have to abandon their pride if a slow and clunky crawl through the next few quarters is necessary before we all find ourselves on stable ground once again. No matter what the stock analysts think, it doesn't matter how pretty you look during the recovery process. What matters is that you manage to survive.

Apparently Amazon.com gave customers 5.45 billion good reasons to open their wallets and let their credit cards breathe some fresh air this summer. While U.S. retail industry watchers were relentlessly scrutinizing every intention, sentiment, and minor mall movement of American consumers leading into the back-to-school season, Amazon kept itself busy processing payments and packaging purchases for a healthy fraction of its 98 million worldwide customers.

Last week was as big and wild for Amazon as the company's namesake South American waterway. In just two days Amazon gave retail industry "experts" 69% more self-doubt in their calculations with its greatly "unexpected" third quarter earnings report, it gave investors a 24% boost in their portfolios in a single day stock surge, and it gave members of the global retail industry more hope about economic recovery than could be quantified by a percentage sign.

Retail industry onlookers who oversimplify Amazon's counter-recessionary success as being nothing more than having the right products at the right price haven't been paying attention since 1994. Amazon is thriving not only because of the transactions that it is conducting today, but also because of the billions of transactions that it has conducted in its past, which positioned it as a trustworthy retailer that sincerely values its customer relationships. It may have taken the rest of us 15 years and a global recession to see the proof that these things really do matter, but Amazon knew it all along.

There are plenty of small and large retailers around the world who are already devoted followers of Amazon in general and CEO Jeff Bezos in particular. Undoubtedly the company's recent stellar success has created even more converts who, consciously or unconsciously, ask themselves, "What would Bezos do?" as they make decisions and lead their business every day.

Although I'm fairly certain that Bezos does not view himself as an omniscient retail messiah, it would be an interesting exercise to look at some of the U.S. retailers who have not been faring as well as Amazon recently and ask, "What Would Bezos Do?"

Blockbuster's Shrinking Market Share - What Would Bezos Do?

If Jeff Bezos was leading the world's largest movie rental chain... read more...

While there is still a lot of uncertainty in retailing worldwide, one thing that the latest numbers tell us for certain is that the U.S. retail industry is definitely not stagnant. With 829 new store closings, 1486 new store openings, and Chapter 11 entries and exits, U.S. retailers are retracting, expanding, succumbing and defying all at the same time. What U.S. retailers are not doing at this stage of the recession cycle is sitting still.

Cafeterias Close

Included in the most recent 829 tally, Luby's added 25 of its cafeterias to the 2009 store closing list last week. These 25 restaurants had collectively lost $5.5 million in fiscal year 2009. Systemwide, Luby's lost $23.3 million in its latest quarter, which was seven times greater than its losses for the same time period last year. Considering those numbers, it seems pretty ambitious for Luby's to continue to operate at all.

It's sad to watch the Luby's chain slowly shrink in size and popularity. Not only is it a nostalgic part of Texas Americana, the chain was also built with a set of old-fashioned business practices that I want to believe could carry any restaurant through any difficulty.

Luby's survived beyond the Great Depression in the 30's by feeding homeless people with leftovers at the end of the day. Luby's survived beyond Hurricane Carla in 1961 by feeding emergency workers despite the damage to its own kitchen facilities. In both instances, Luby's customers repaid the restaurant chain for its human kindness with fiercely loyal patronage.

"Share the work, share the risk, share the profits." This was a guiding principle of the restaurant chain's founder, Harry Luby which was also embraced by his son, Bob. Because both men genuinely valued their management team, Luby's has been well-known throughout it's 98-year history for having some of the lowest employee turnover rates in the U.S. restaurant industry.

It would be great to see Luby's stick to its roots and prove to the world that profit and principles are not mutually exclusive. After observing banking meltdowns, excessive CEO compensation, outrageous executive bonuses, and widespread corporate chaos over the past few years, it is clear that the world could use some more principle-guided leadership. The past decade in Luby's history, however, has revealed that the company may be abandoning its own dedication to outstanding employee and customer relationships.

Current online customer reviews consistently complain that Luby's food quality is decreasing while its prices are increasing. Customer compliments in the past expressed the exact opposite opinion.

Employees don't seem to be as happy with Luby's any more either. In two high-profile cases in the past three years, Luby's paid substantial settlements to former employees in response to EEOC suits for disability bias and sexual harassment.

Investor satisfaction seems to be faltering for Luby's as well. Since well-known restauranteurs Chris and Harris Pappas took over leadership of the Luby's chain in 2001, they have been criticized for management conflicts of interest with their Pappas restaurants, and their leadership team has been in proxy fights with shareholders.

CEO Chris Pappas said in a teleconference last week that Luby's current profitability plunge is a result of "the challenging economic environment, including the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in over 20 years." But considering the pre-recession challenges that Luby's was having, perhaps the economy is not causing Luby's problems, but rather just revealing them.

Restaurants Reorganize

Another distressed restaurant chain seems to be having management problems as well. The famous Fatburger chain is still under bankruptcy court protection, six months after its filing. Included in the most recent retail Chapter 11 updates, Fatburger has recently announced the closing of eight company-owned restaurants that were collectively losing $1 million. The company also recently stated its intention to file its reorganization plans with the bankruptcy court before mid-November, which it hopes will include renegotiated leases and restructured debt.

In an overcrowded American burger market, Fatburger has one invaluable competitive advantage that other burger joints would fry for - unpaid celebrity endorsements. Sports, music, film, and television celebrities eat at Fatburger, rap about Fatburger, and own Fatburger franchises. Montel Williams, Kanye West, Queen Latifah, Ice Cube, and the Beastie Boys have all voluntarily associated themselves with the chain in one way or another. How could a restaurant chain not be able to capitalize on all that star power?

Since buying out the chain in 2003, CEO Andrew Wiederhorn has been on trial, in and out of jail, and fighting foreclosure on his personal residence. That may not be the cause of Fatburger's struggles, but it's at least got to be a little bit distracting.

It's difficult to keep track of how the company has been doing financially in the recession because apparently parent company Fog Cutter has been too busy planning its Fatburger expansion into China to file SEC paperwork for the past year or so. But that annoying little paperwork task is one thing that Widerhorn promises is high on his 2009 to-do list, right next to bankruptcy reorganization, of course.

Eateries Expand

While Fatburger has only Chapter 11 news to report, one of its biggest competitors was counted among the 1,486 store openings most recently tallied. In addition to approximately 60 openings that rival Smashburger added to the 2009 store opening list, the company has also confirmed that seven new airport locations will be among the 18 new locations it has contributed to the 2010 store openings tally.

Smashburger hasn't garnered high profile celebrity endorsements, but what it has successfully amassed is local appeal. If you attended the grand opening of the new Smashburger in Dayton, Ohio this weekend, you could have ordered the Buckeye Smashburger with fried pepper rings, and your smashing purchase would have contributed to the Thank You Foundation of Dayton. If you had stopped into the two-week old Tempe, Arizona Smashburger on Saturday, you could have ordered the Arizona Burger with habanero cheese, and your spicy appetite would have benefited the Sun Devil Family Charities.

Last month, avid Smashburger fans in Minneapolis saw the Spicy Baja Smashburger on Texas menus and decided that the southwest concoction would also be a smash hit in the great white north. So the Twin City smashies started campaigning via blog posts and Twitter tweets until the company agreed to add its jalapeno-chipotle-pepper-jack concoction to Minnesota menus.

Smashburger issued plenty of press releases about the whole affair, saying that it was glad to make the menu change for Twin City fans, which it did with plenty of fan-fare. Who needs celebrity endorsements when you've got food that creates its own burger buzz?

Luby's vs. Fatburger vs. Smashburger

Three different restaurant chains in the same economy find themselves in three different stages of their own business cycle. The critical difference? Luby's and Fatburger were already having internal conflict and management challenges before the recession hit. Smashburger, by comparison, seemed to be in hamburger heaven. External economic crisis caused further destabilization within the Luby's and Fatburger chains, while a self-built stabilization in Smashburger's operations has allowed it to buck the recession and move way ahead of the recovery curve.

So perhaps one of the big lessons of the Great Recession is that there is no such thing as a recession-proof business. Rather, there are businesses that are rendered crisis-proof by stable management teams with strong values and solid customer and employee relationships. Cash reserves help too. But even a big pile of money can't hide mismanagement forever.

Comparing this year's sales in stores open for at least a year with last year's sales in stores open for at least a year is supposed to reveal the strength of a retail chain. This is the premise of same store sales figures and this is what motivates members of the U.S. retail industry to go to the trouble of calculating, reporting, and analyzing same store sales monthly, quarterly, and annually.

Based on this premise of "strength," same store sales of the Old Navy chain not only had strength in September 2009, the chain seemingly developed super powers. With an impressive 13% increase in same store sales as compared to September 2008, Old Navy rocketed into positive sales territory faster than a speeding retail recovery.

To be fair to all other publicly traded U.S. retail chains, Old Navy was at a distinct advantage because it was comparing this year's September sales with last year's September, which saw an embarrassing 24% same store sales drop. And that 2008 drop was in comparison to its September 2007 sales drop of 8%, which was compared to its 3% drop in 2006, its 7% drop in 2005 and its 6% drop in 2004. In fact, Old Navy hasn't seen a same store sales increase in six years worth of Septembers.

So is this year's 13% increase really a show of Old Navy's "strength?" As much as sitting up in the intensive care unit after being hit by a bus can be viewed as strength, Old Navy did show some signs of recovery progress in September, 2009.

The problem with same store sales numbers is... more...