| Consumers Cautious This Holiday Shopping Season |
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A survey of consumer holiday buying intent by leading market information provider, The NPD Group, Inc. confirms this holiday shopping season could be a challenging one for retailers. Sixty-nine percent of American consumers indicated they plan to spend the same amount this holiday as last year. Twenty percent of consumers indicated they plan to spend less this year and only 12 percent plan to spend more than last year. In addition, most consumers plan to "shop for value" this holiday by waiting for sales and spending more at discount retailers.
Consumer Holiday Spending Plans
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Household
Income
|
Planned
Spending
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| Under $30,000 per year |
$379
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| $30,000 to $74,000 per year |
$618
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| $75,000 per year or more |
$956
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Average
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$661
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On average, survey respondents plan to spend $661 this holiday season. Consumers with combined household incomes under $30,000 annually plan to spend $379. Spending increases to $618 for those with household incomes of between $30,000 and $74,000 and consumers earning $75,000 or more plan to spend $956.
Value will be a holiday shopping theme this year as consumers said they will delay purchases until retailers offer sales. Forty-nine percent of consumers said buying on sale this year is "just as important" as it was during holiday 2001. An equal percentage of consumers (49 percent) said buying on sale was "more important" than last year. Forty percent of women view buying on sale this year as "much more important," while thirty percent of men view buying on sale as "much more important" as it was to them last year.
This holiday season, consumers say they will shop more in discount stores, warehouse clubs, outlets and online than other types of retailers. Seventy-nine percent of consumers plan to shop this holiday season in discount stores such as Kmart, Target and Wal-Mart.
Thirty-six percent of consumers say they plan to shop in warehouse clubs and 30 percent of consumers plan to shop in outlets. Forty percent of consumers plan to purchase holiday gifts online. Catalog shopping is preferred by more women than men. Forty percent of women said they plan to shop via catalog/mail order this holiday season, compared to 25 percent of men.
The NPD survey also asked consumers about the influences affecting channel decisions. Value, quality of merchandise and selection were cited as the top three influences on consumers’ decisions about where to shop this year. "Consumers have many options this year. Given the wide range of styles, models, products, prices and retailer alternatives and the commitment to finding value, understanding where the opportunities are and what’s important to consumers is going to be critical to retailers’ holiday season success," said Marshal Cohen, co-president, NPDFashionworld, a division of The NPD Group, Inc. "Retailers are trying to be leaner with inventories, but will that boost or hinder sales? This remains to be seen."
A safe environment is a strong influence on consumer choice this year, particularly among women. Fifty-four percent of women and 34 percent of men view shopping in a safe environment as "extremely important."
Factors Influencing Holiday Shopping
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Factor
|
%
of consumers rating it
as "extremely important" |
|
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| Value |
69%
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| Quality |
62%
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| Selection |
52%
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| Hassle-free returns |
51%
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| Convenient location |
49%
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| Safe environment |
45%
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| Polite sales people |
44%
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| Store
makes consumer feel like a "valued customer" |
38%
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| Known brands |
36%
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| Offers gift certificates |
23%
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Respondents said they plan to purchase more music and books than last year but will purchase less apparel, toys, electronics, video games and fragrances. The most popular gift is clothing, with 74 percent of consumers intending to buy it this holiday season. Toys and books represent the second and third most popular gift items with 55 percent and 43 percent of consumers saying they will purchase them this holiday season.
More women intend to buy clothing than men, 77 percent vs. 70 percent respectively. Women also intend to buy more home/holiday decorations (34 percent vs. 18 percent) and books (49 percent vs. 36 percent respectively) than they did last year. Men intend to buy more consumer electronics than women (27 percent vs. 19 percent respectively). "When it comes to shopping, men and women are not so equal. Understanding the differences this holiday may make or break the season," said Cohen.
Popularity of Key Gift Categories
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Category
|
Holiday
2002
% who plan to buy |
Holiday
2001
% who bought |
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|
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| Clothing
|
74%
|
78%
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| Toys |
55%
|
58%
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| Books
|
43%
|
41%
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| Music |
40%
|
39%
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| Jewelry |
31%
|
35%
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| Video Games |
30%
|
32%
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| Fragrances
|
27%
|
30%
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| Home Decorations |
27%
|
31%
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| Electronics |
23%
|
37%
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| Housewares |
21%
|
24%
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Gift cards/certificates continue to gain in popularity. This holiday 57 percent of respondents intend to buy gift cards/certificates. This compared to the 53 percent of respondents who said they bought gift cards last year. Women are more likely to give a gift card/certificate this year than men (60 percent vs. 53 percent respectively).
More and more consumers will be shopping before Thanksgiving, the traditional start to the holiday shopping season. In fact, 57 percent of consumers say they will begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving. Women are more likely to get an early jump on holiday shopping – 65 percent of women said they will start their shopping before Thanksgiving weekend and 49 percent of men said they start before Thanksgiving. Men are more likely to wait until December to begin their shopping. Thirty-two percent of men and 19 percent of women wait until December to begin their shopping.
Methodology
The NPD Holiday Survey was fielded September 17 to 24, 2002. It was e-mailed
to 5,000 members of the NPD Online Panel. The findings presented here are
based on information from 2363 completed interviews.
About The NPD
Group, Inc.
The NPD Group, Inc. (NPD) is a global market information company that measures
product movement and consumer behavior across a broad range of industries
-- apparel, automotive products, consumer electronics, cosmetics and fragrances,
food, foodservice, footwear, housewares, information technology, interactive
entertainment, toys and music. For more information on The NPD Group, visit
http://www.npd.com .
Source: NPD press release, October 8, 2002.
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Special Report Compiled by Melody Vargas |
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