2001 Consumer Holiday Outlook Survey

Part 1: The National Retail Federation on Consumer Spending

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	Part 1: Consumer Spending Part 2: How Retailers Can Tap Potential
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American consumers may be more poised to shop this holiday season than originally predicted. According to the National Retail Federation's (NRF) 2001 Consumer Holiday Outlook survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $940 per household this holiday season on gifts for family and friends, decorations, greeting cards, and food or candy.

A savvy two-thirds of consumers (65.6 percent) plan to take advantage of sales or price discounts during the holiday season to make additional non-gift purchases for themselves or for their household this year. The survey of 1,000 respondents across the country was conducted for NRF by Market Facts, Inc. from October 19-21.

"Given the many uncertainties facing the country as we head into the holidays this year, consumers appear to remain dedicated to celebrating the season as they've done before," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. "There may be more enthusiasm from consumers than originally forecasted for gift shopping, decorating, and browsing for bargains."

NRF is predicting 2001 holiday sales in the GAFO category (general merchandise, apparel, furniture and specialty stores) for November and December to increase 2.5 - 3.0 percent.

The survey provides an important insight into how consumers are planning for the holidays during an unprecedented time in the nation's history. The September 11th terrorist attacks, ensuing military action in Afghanistan, and rising threats of bioterrorism continue to ratchet up consumers' fears about their finances, future and safety. However, the survey's results point to a much more resilient and characteristically expectant mood taking hold as Americans start thinking about observing their winter holiday traditions.

Business As Usual For Many Consumers This Holiday Season

In spite of the events since September 11th, the NRF Holiday Outlook survey shows that a large majority of respondents do not plan to drastically alter their holiday shopping behavior this year. Four out of five consumers (83.6 percent) plan to buy gifts and cards this holiday season for about the same number or more people than they did last year. Young adults aged 18 to 24-years old appear to be particularly in the holiday mood right now -- they are significantly more likely than any other age group to buy gifts and cards for more people than last year (34.5 percent).

The majority of consumers (57.2 percent) plan to start their holiday shopping in November or the first two weeks in December -- highlighting the fact that their behavior this year does coincide with what is considered to be the traditional kick-off for the retail holiday shopping season.

In addition, the events of September 11th did not appear to throw off early shoppers' plans. Almost a third (30.1 percent) of survey respondents had already started their holiday shopping before September, or during September or October. Male respondents are almost three times more likely than females to start holiday shopping late -- with 12.3 percent planning to start in the last two weeks of December.

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