2009 Black Friday and Holiday Shopping Season U.S. Retail Industry Predictions

Click here for 2011 Black Friday Updated Information

• Complete Black Friday 2011 Store Opening Times and Store Hours List
• Black Friday Only Special Deals, Bonuses, Freebies, and Coupons
• 2011 Thanksgiving Day Store Opening Times and Store Hours
• The Worst Black Friday Ever

In a survey released yesterday, the Conference Board reported that the average U.S. household plans to spend $390 on holiday shopping this year. This is a jaw-dropping 43% lower than the $683 per-person shopping budget that the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted in its 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey. Both predictions represent sales declines from 2008, but the size of those predicted declines is disturbingly disparate when you consider that one prediction is per household and the other is per person.

It's obvious which of these two survey results we all want to believe. It may not be so obvious which survey deserves to be believed.

From a purely historical perspective, neither organization is particularly accurate in its holiday shopping predictions. In 2008 the NRF's holiday intentions survey predicted a 2.2% increase in holiday spending. The Conference Board predicted a 12% decrease. In reality, there was a 3.4% sales drop in the U.S. retail industry overall in the 2008 holiday season. So the NRF was really wrong in predicting a spending increase and the Conference Board was really wrong in predicting the size of the spending decrease.

The truth about holiday spending in 2009 will probably be found somewhere between the $390 household and the $683 individual budget that the each organization's research predicts. That is a scary big gap that nobody wants to believe the retail industry will plummet into this holiday season. Yes, Mr. Bernanke, there is a recession.

One major anomaly is going to skew the 2009 holiday shopping numbers... read more...