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Retailers seem to think that if they carry less inventory, there will be no need for desperation discounts to move the inventory out the doors. The thinking is that shoppers may hold out for discounts, but if those discounts don't materialize, they will make full-price purchases anyway. After all, it's Christmas (and Hanukkah, and Kwanzaa) so everybody's gotta buy something, right?
The fallacy in that reasoning may be the "gotta buy" part. Consumers have been proving all year that in the absence of the false security that credit cards provide, the "gotta buy" impulse is not nearly as compelling as it used to be. In the absence of a really great deal, cash may become the gift of choice this holiday season, which the recipients may also hold onto until they can exchange it for a really great deal. Shoppers have proven in 2009 that they can wait to spend, which is a huge change in the immediate gratification psyche of the average American consumer.
As has been the undercurrent for the entire industry in 2009, U.S. retailers will be struggling this holiday shopping season to figure out how traditional retail practices fit in with a new consuming mindset. If Black Friday isn't the fabricated official beginning point that it used to be, then what is it? It's not clear that any brick-and-mortar retail chain is all that clear about how Black Friday is going to contribute substantially to the black ink it's supposed to create.
Perhaps somebody besides Amazon has a brilliant master plan, but for now, Black Friday seems like it might be a bad game of "Deal or No Deal" with lots of risk-taking and very few payoffs.
Black Friday 2011 Updated Information More Retail Holiday Analysis:
