Bernanke’s "Recession Over" Speech Bad Timing and Very Likely A Bad Prediction

Federal Reserve Chairman Fails to Consider Store Closings and Consumer Attitudes

This week Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared to the world that the U.S. recession was “very likely over.”

This reminds me of a certain day in May, 2003, when a certain U.S. president stood on the deck of a certain aircraft carrier and declared that a certain “military action” was over. That was 76 months, $800 billion, and 4,340 U.S. casualties ago. Which just goes to show you, that just because a person in a position of authority makes a declaration, doesn’t mean it’s true.

Now that the economy-in-chief has declared that the recession is over, he better make sure that the memo about that declaration gets better distribution than Bush’s victory proclamation did. Apparently Bush’s “war-over” memo didn’t reach those with the guns and the suicide bombs, so the fighting didn’t stop. So, Bernanke better make sure that his memo gets out, otherwise people might continue to live as if the economy is bad.

For instance, as soon as the 15 million people without jobs find out that the recession is “very likely” over, they may “very likely” stop worrying so much about the fact that they have no income.

As soon as the Bernanke memo about the recession being over gets distributed to the people who do have jobs, the 9 million people who are underemployed “very likely” will feel renewed optimism that they will be able to secure a new job that will better utilize their high-priced education and help them make their burdensomely large student loan payments. Hopefully the 7 million job positions that no longer exist won’t dampen the newfound enthusiasm of those underemployed job-hunters. “Very likely” there are not 7 million open hiring requisitions waiting to refill those previously eliminated positions, no matter how positive things look on the Federal Reserve spreadsheet... read more...