Hopes High, Growth and Recovery Low in September 2009 Same Store Sales Negatives

Aeropostale had a 19% increase. That's on top of a 5% increase in September, 2008 and a 1.3% increase in 2007. That's what "growth" looks like.

Buckle posted a 5.1% sales increase in September 2009. That's on top of a 19.7% increase in September 2008, and a 10.9% increase in September 2007. That's what "strength" looks like.

Kohl's showed a 5.5% same store sales increase last month. But that was on top of an identical drop of 5.5% in September 2008. And that was on top of a 3.2% same store sales decrease in September 2007. Kohl's numbers might have looked positive last month, but they didn't exactly represent the "strength" or "growth" that positive same store sales are supposed to indicate.

Looking at a history of September same store sales figures reveals that of the 14 retail chains that posted positive same store sales figures in September, 2009, nearly half of them were comparing themselves to the negative numbers they had posted in September, 2008. It's easy to look positive when you're comparing yourself to your own negative past.

Of the 26 chains that still had minus signs in front of their same store sales figures last month, more than half of those declines were on top of declines in September 2008 as well. Negative on top of meltdown negative is not just doubly negative, it's more like negative squared.

Speaking of September 2008, the negative same store sales numbers that where posted that month by Neiman Marcus, Dillard's and Stein Mart were blamed in part on the impact of three major hurricanes. This year, those three chains had sales that fell even lower than last year's post-hurricane levels. Perhaps there are a few chains that are "bouncing off the bottom," but clearly there are still many U.S. retail chains that haven't found their bottom yet.

In response to the September 2009 retail sales numbers, the chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers declared "Let the retail recovery begin!" We'll just file that in the same folder as Ben Bernanke's "Recession is over" declaration last month, to be pulled out and re-read at a more appropriate time. At some point in the future both men will be right. But as long as jobs are still scarce, stores are still closing, and same store sales are still coming in at 2002 levels, neither economic expert is right quite yet.

Hope is an essential ingredient for economic recovery. But too much hope too soon could prove to be a setup for a huge consumer confidence disappointment. And when faced with record high unemployment, rapidly disappearing unemployment benefits, and a less than jolly holiday budget, the one thing that will snap consumer wallets shut even tighter than they've been before is another crisis of confidence.

While September same store sales are not really as good as many people want to believe they are, they're at least good enough to inspire cautious optimism. Considering the state that the U.S. retail industry was in this time last year, cautious optimism represents a huge improvement. For now, that is enough.

More Important Retail Indusry Indicators:

• 2009 Same Store Sales Data
• 2009 Consumer Sentiment Complete List
• Retail Restaurant Performance Index - 2009