2009 Predictions: After the Recession A Better Retail Industry Will Emerge

Consumers Will Benefit From Retail Stores Closings, Layoffs, and Bankruptcy

Much of what is predicted to happen in the retail industry in 2009 reminds me of what happened with my hairdresser, Randy. I was his loyal customer because he was very good, very fun, and he made sure I felt and looked fabulous before walking out the door.

As his clientele grew, though, he double and triple booked himself, which meant that he sometimes had six different clients in some stage of the hairdressing process waiting for him simultaneously. One day it took me 6 ½ hours to get highlights that were too bright and a cut that looked unpolished and uneven. Despite expressing my dissatisfaction, Randy insisted that I looked “fabulous,” and if I wanted anything changed, I could come back the next week. That was the final hairdressing business that Randy got from me.

Several months later, I received a mass mailing from Randy, apologizing for the double bookings, the long waits, and the diminished services. Despite his promises to change and a discount coupon, I had already found a suitable alternative, and wasn’t inclined to accept the invitation to return. I didn’t give him another chance because I didn’t need to.

In 2009 retailers will realize that customers won't give second chances after less than "fabulous" experiences because they don't need to. Suitable alternatives for consumers abound, including the alternative to not consume at all. The success or failure of individual stores and entire chains in 2009 will result from the success or failure they have with their customers and potential customers, one transaction at a time. Retailers will be forced to get back to basics. Only the discount retailers will have the luxury of forgetting that customer satisfaction is esential to survival.

My personal prediction is that at the end of 2009, there will be fewer retail choices, but the choices that are left will be better in every way. The retail industry crisis will bring out the best that some retailers have to offer, and those best retailers will be the ones that survive. People on all sides of the retail equation will come to realize that less can be more, and bigger is not always better. Individual retailers will revisit their values, and rediscover the heart and soul of their business. The retail industry as a whole will start to realize that success has to be measured by more than just the things that can be quantified on a shareholders’ quarterly report.

The big winner in 2009 and beyond will be American consumers. A forced discrimination will create conscious consuming habits that will not only redefine the retail industry, but also reprioritize daily existence. Unfortunately, elevated consciousness never comes at a discounted price.