Whether it hits as an official hurricane or just a fierce tropical storm, Isaac is threatening not only the people and property in New Orleans, but also the New Orleans businesses that provide work to the people who pay for the property. While nothing is more tragic than the loss of human life, one of the biggest losers from Hurricane Katrina was the Louisiana retail industry, which still hasn't fully recovered, and may not weather another hurricane disaster well.
In August, 2005 before Hurricane Katrina slammed into Louisiana, there were 66,900 people employed by the New Orleans retail industry. As of May, 2012, that retail employment number was just 57,100, which means that only 85% of the New Orleans retail job market has recovered seven years after Katrina came to visit. Granted, there have been a few other extenuating economic circumstances that may have contributed to the present state of New Orleans retailing, but New Orleans retailers have been in recovery mode for so long, the economic recession was much less relevant to them than it was to the rest of the U.S.
The hurricane-induced recession was much more severe for the Louisiana retail industry, and when you look at the vital statistics, it's easy to understand why Louisiana retailing has not yet fully recovered. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, some of the immediate consequences of Katrina to Louisiana retailing were:
- 25,200 retail jobs were eliminated
- 52% loss of jobs in gasoline statiions
- 36% loss of jobs in retail food & beverage
- 27% loss of jobs in clothing stores
- 25% loss of jobs in vehicle parts stores
After Katrina, even though the largest U.S. retail chains resumed operations before profitability was possible, when they re-opened and rebuilt, they did so in the suburbs, not in Orleans Parish which seemed like risky business in more ways than one. But even though retail chains may have a little more geographical safety in 2012, the wind, rain, tornadoes, and storm surge that Isaac unleashes still poses a threat to some big retail chains with a big presence in the New Orleans area:
- Chick-fil-A - 35 stores in the state of Louisiana with estimated annual sales of $101 million
- Panera Bread (PNRA) - 29 stores within 250 miles of New Orleans with estimated annual sales of $66 million
- KFC (YUM) - 38 stores within 100 miles of New Orleans with estimated sales of $35 million
- Starbucks (SBUX) - 30 stores in the New Orleans area from Houma to Slidell with estimated annual sales of $34 million
According to the revenue estimates of the latest QSR 50 report, there's a $235 million-dollar threat to just four little restaurant chains, should their supply chains get disrupted or their locations get damaged by Isaac. Other retail chains with a significant number of stores in the path of Isaac include:
- 107 CVS (CVS) stores in Louisiana, 8 in the New Orleans metropolitan area
- 74 Walgreens (WAG) stores within 50 miles of New Orleans, and locations in 62 Louisiana cities
- 38 supermarket locations for Thibodaux-based Rouses supermarkets located in Louisiana and Mississippi
- 32 Winn Dixie stores within a 50-mile radius of New Orleans
- 22 Home Depot (HD) stores within 100 miles of New Orleans
- 20 Wal-Mart (WMT) stores within 50 miles of New Orleansn
- 18 Lowe's (LOW) stores within 100 miles of New Orleans, and a total of 26 stores in Louisiana
And after the gas station/convenience store sector lost more than half of its retail jobs to Katrina, these convenience store chains are feeling the threat of Isaac looming large:
- 36 CITGO stations within 100 miles of New Orleans
- 30 Chevron stations within 25 miles of New Orleans
- 28 Pantry locations in Louisiana
- 26 RaceTrac stores within 100 miles of New Orleans
- 21 Shell stations in the New Orleans metropolitan area
Even though Louisiana is not a popular location for retail headquarters, it doesn't mean that retail boardrooms won't be storm tracking while Isaac takes its sweet time deciding where to land. The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculate the total annual retail sales in New Orleans to be $10.4 billion, and that's an additional 10.4 billion ways that Isaac is threatening New Orleans residents, employees, and business owners. As if anybody in Louisiana needed anything else to worry about.
More Weather Events That Had Retail Consequences:
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