Positive Returns Increase, Executive Excuses Decrease, Wal-Mart Stops Playing

The quasi plausible reassurances of a company spokesperson, however, seem to be part of the sales reporting game. I have sympathy for the communications specialist who has an internet window permanently opened to thesaurus.com, searching for a way to concoct a statement each month that sounds fresh, original, and most importantly, credible.

Macy’s for example, has had negative same store sales figures to report for more months that it cares to remember. Here’s how they have explained their sales performance in the past few months:

After reporting a 13.3% decline in November, 2008: “Because of a dramatic year-over-year calendar shift that results in an important post-Thanksgiving week of sales falling in December this year versus November last year, Macy's, Inc. had previously stated that November same-store sales were expected to be down in the low double digits.”

After reporting a 4% decline in December, 2008: "The holiday shopping season ended with strong sales in the fourth and fifth weeks of December after a slow start to the month and unfavorable weather conditions in the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest," said Terry J. Lundgren, Macy's, Inc. chairman, president and chief executive officer.”

After reporting a 4.5% decline in January, 2009: “Given the poor macro-economic environment, Macy's, Inc. continues to manage its business conservatively to ensure inventory, expenses and capital expenditures are aligned with sales assumptions for 2009.”

After reporting a 8.5% decline in February, 2009: "We believe that Macy's Inc is well-positioned to continue to weather this downturn and to accelerate results once the economy begins to rebound," Chief Executive Terry Lundgren said.

In March, 2009 Macy’s apparently just ran out of explanations. In the past two months the company has simply released its figures, and provided no explanations or thinly veiled excuses. Perhaps there is just nothing left to say.

Or perhaps this is just Macy’s passive aggressive retaliation for being coerced back into the monthly same store sales game after it had stopped participating for the first 10 months of 2008. Apparently being a publicly traded retail company in the U.S. is much like being part of the investment community mafia. Compliance is expected, quitting is not an option.

That is, unless you’re Wal-Mart. It’s doubtful that there will be dramatic consequences for that company’s stock prices when it discontinues its monthly same store sales reports beginning in May, 2009. Wal-Mart said the reason for the discontinuation was to “reduce the intra-period volatility related to events such as calendar shifts” and “align investors with the long-term view.”

While this radical move by Wal-Mart is probably freaking out a good number of analysts, I bet a good number of them are also secretly relieved. It’s got to cause headaches, if not motion sickness, to constantly be reacting to the ups and downs that are tracked and analyzed to death every month, week, day, hour and minute. Most events would be insignificant in the long term if so many people were not so busy trying to assign significance to them in the short term.

So, possibly, this could be the beginning of the end for U.S. retail monthly same store sales reports. Since Wal-Mart is the benchmark by which the rest of the retail industry is judged, the absence of data from the world’s largest retailer may diminish the usefulness of the data from all other retailers. It will not be surprising to see other companies slowly take their name off the monthly reporting game roster in 2009. Macy’s is likely looking forward to having permission to do that again.

For those who enjoy the thrill of the monthly same store sales ride, enjoy the shrinking list of monthly sales figures while you can. We may all see in the near future that many retailers are just not that into them any more.

More analysis of 2009 same store sales figures:

• January, 2009: Same Ups, Same Downs
• February, 2009: Retailers Beat Low Expectations
• March, 2009: Permanent Consumer Shifts Revealed